engleski

Seasonal and atmospheric predictability - the ECMWF PROVOST experience

A series of ensemble integrations with ECMWF model has been made to assess the predictability of the atmosphere on seasonal timescales. Integrations were 120 days long and observed sea surface temperature (SST) was specified at the lower boundary. Overall, the level of skill was positive for all regions considered. Systematic errors of the model are found to be non-negligible. Over some parts of the globe, it was found that systematic errors are of the order of magnitude of interannual variability.

seasonal predictability; ensembles; SST; El Nino; La Nina

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