engleski

The economic value of seasonal forecasts

Seasonal forecasting is essentially probabilistic. Standard scores can be computed from ensembles to give objective measures of meteorological skill. However, it is often difficult to say whether a useful level of skill has been achieved. We have considered two rudimentary events, and have evaluated them over a rather extensive region. Multi-model ensembles generally have higher value of skill and potentially higher economic value than single model. From a practical point of view, this stresses the need for a synthesis of the available seasonal forecasts into a single multi-model multi-initial condition ensemble probability forecast.

seasonal forecasts; economic value

nije evidentirano