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Wintertime variability in the Euro-Atlantic region in observations and in ECMWF seasonal ensemble experiments

An EOF decomposition of monthly mean analyses of 500 hPa height (1949-94) is used to describe the interannual variability of the large-scale flow in the Euro-Atlantic region during winter. Indications of an influence of tropical SST anomalies on the blocking-like third EOF, emerging from ECMWF re-analysis are not confirmed by a longer SST record. A 14-winter set of seasonal ensemble simulations, performed with the ECMWF atmospheric model, is validated by comparing projections of ERA data onto four leading Euro-Atlantic EOFs. The performance of the model is uneven and depends on the large-scale pattern considered.

ensemble simulations; Euro-Atlantic variability; seasonal predictability

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