engleski

A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations

A probabilistic analysis is made of seasonal ensemble integrations from the PROVOST project. The results from the analysis of relative operating characteristic are input to a simple decision model. Results from the Brier skill score analysis indicate that the multi-model ensemble is substantially more skilful than climatology. Both reliability and resolution are better for the multi-model ensemble than for the individual-model ensembles. The decision model analysis show that the economic value of seasonal forecasts is strongly dependent on the cost to the user of taking precautionary action against the event considered.

decision-model analysis; ensemble integrations; seasona predictability

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