engleski

An example of the chaos theory practical implication in the formulation of a deterministic climatic model

Long series of temperature monthly means at Zagreb, Croatia, were subjected to the correlation algorithm. Some deformations on the cumulative frequency distribution curves indicated a possible existence of a low-dimensional subspace, which might describe large magnitude influences of just three coupled governing variables. When compared with some previous investigations at Zagreb climate, those variables most probably were: temperature, T, cloudiness, N and the received solar radiation, Q. Some attempts were made to formulate a closed system for those three variables. Due to a strong dependence of the received solar radiation on the cloudiness, the basic system could be reduced to two equations: a diagnostic one for the temperature climatic variations in dependence on Q and N, i.e. T(Q,N) and a prognostic equation for the cloudiness, N=N(t). Several scenarios of N(t) with respect to the general circulation of the atmosphere prevailing patterns over European mid-latitudes have been theoretically modelled to simulate expected temperature variations. The application to several locations in Europe gave encouraging results.

chaos theory; deteministic climatic model

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