engleski

Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency and intensity in Croatia

Investigation of the precipitation amount, frequency and intensity trends during the twentieth century over Croatia was performed for the three locations with different precipitation climates: Osijek (continental), Crikvenica (maritime) and Zagreb-Gric (continental under the maritime influence from the Mediterranean). Since 1901, annual precipitation amounts have decreased across Croatia as was also indicated in the south-eastern Europe and the middle part of the central Europe. The decrease in precipitation is reflected in the frequency of days with precipitation, but differently for different regions. At the eastern Adriatic coast, where the significance for all categories of precipitation amounts. It amounted 27 days per 100 years for days with precipitation Rd>=0.1 mm, and 9 days per 100 years for days with precipitation Rd>=10.0 mm. Over the eastern Croatian lowlands the decrease in precipitation of 13% was a result of decrease in more intense precipitation events (2 days per 100 years for Rd>=10.0 mm as well as 4 days per 100 years for Rd>=20.0 mm). In the NW parts of Croatia the statistically significant decrease in the frequency of lower daily precipitation amounts contributed to the decrease in precipitation which was less expressed than in the other parts (4%). Trend analysis of annual maximum daily precipitation amounts indicated at the secular decrease over the inland continental parts and at the increase over the northern Adriatic. How does this reflects in the estimates of annual daily maximum for certain return period? The estimates for 50-year return period calculated for 45-year moving periods created a new data set for each location. A strong influence of the upper outliers was pronounced in each series of the estimated values. Once again a high variability of the short-term precipitation was confirmed, as well as the necessity of analysis of rather long data series in order to identify the possible short-term precipitation maxima changes in time.

precipitation intensity; Croatia

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