engleski

DEMAND FORECASTING IN RAILWAY FREIGHT TRANSPORT

Railway transport is a mass carrier of freight, which means that it can carry large amounts of goods in a relatively short time over large distances. Historically considered, the railway had been a monopolist but at the beginning of the 1990s the European Union brought and started to implement the railway transport market liberalization. The directives result in the separation of the infrastructure from the railway carrier and to significant organizational changes in the entire railway system operation. The separation process was extremely painful and demanding for all the railway subjects, but it resulted in a number of advantages in the functioning of the railway system ; primarily in the organization of the railway carriers who have to compete on the freight transport market. Thus, in the new freight transport conditions by rail there is need for continuous study of the current situation on the market and consequently adaptation of the railway carriers to the new situation. Therefore, constant research of freight transport demand is necessary, in order to react on time with an appropriate offer. The paper will analyze the freight transport in the Republic of Croatia and discuss in detail freight transport by rail, followed by the evidence of correlation between freight transport as the internal factor and the gross domestic product as the external factor. This will result in the development of a forecasting model of the future demand for rail transport. The calculations provided in the paper have been carried out by means of the SAS software package.

freight rail transport; demand forecasting; GDP; SAS

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