slovenski

Dileme tečajne politike v Hrvaški (1)

Since successful implementation of the Stabilization programme in October 1993, Croatian economists argue on if domestic currency is overvalued or not. In this paper arguments are offered in support of the thesis that a rather substantial overvaluation has happened in a short period of time immediately after implementation of the Stabilization programme and that it has been deepening until now. After initial devaluation of roughly 20% (from 3, 72 to 4, 444 Croatian dinar for DEM) which has triggered increase of prices between 23% (PPI) and 38% (CPI), the exchange rate has, in a month and a half, returned to the pre-programme level and has remained rather stable till now. In this short episode, domestic currency appreciated against DEM between 18, 5% (PP) and 26, 2%.(CPI). Due to rather strong inflow of foreign exchange in addition to the proceeds from exports of goods and services, (workers remittances, drawing on savings at home, foreign credits etc.).National bank was able to keep a stable rate within a band of roughly +/-5% round the central value. Gross wages and taxes, however, were continuously rising thus deepening overvaluation. In a search for an appropriate exit strategy, some foreign exchange regimes are considered in the paper (currency board and full currency substitution (euro). As an appropriate exchange rate, author suggests a sort of a crawling band in a form of asymmetric interventions.

Hrvatska; tečajna politika; platna bilanca; konjunkturni test; investicijski test

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