engleski

Modelling of maize production and the impact of climate change on maize yields in Croatia

The effect of climate change on maize growth and productivity in the central part of Croatia has been researched using the crop CERES-Maize model. The Zagreb Maksimir meteorological data during the period 1949– 2004 and pedological, physiological and genetic data obtained in the field maize experiment in Zagreb 1999 have been used. In order to estimate the intensity of the regional impact of climate change on maize production, a synthetic meteorological series was created by the stochastic weather generator Met&Roll for different climate change scenarios. The CERES-Maize model was run with meteorological series representing the present climate and synthetic meteorological series representing the changed climate. All climate change scenarios during the 21st century, including only the climate change effect, projected a shorter growing season of 34-44 days and a reduction in maize yields of 8-15%.

CERES-Maize model, weather generator Met&Roll, climate change scenarios

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