engleski

Evaluation of climate conditions with possible influence on agricultural practices in Croatia

Climate variability has already significantly influenced agriculture and welfare of rural population in Croatia. To evaluate climate conditions and explain the impact of climate changes on crop production, the calculations have been performed for two subperiods: reference 30- year period 1961-1990 and the last two decades 1991-2010 at four meteorological stations with different climate conditions located across Pannonian, mountainous and Mediterranean agricultural regions of Croatia. Comparison of two periods was performed by calculation of mean annual cycles of temperature, precipitation and soil water balance on monthly scale, duration of period with air temperatures above temperature thresholds of 5, 10, 15 and 20°C, and linear trends. One extremely dry (2003) and one extremely wet (2010) year were additionally underlined for soil water balance analysis. Results show increase of duration in 1991-2010 period compared to reference period for all threshold temperatures. The highest increase in number of days (14 to 36) was recorded for 10°C for all stations, thus indicating warming process which affect most of the year. The second highest increase (13 to 64 days) was found for 20°C indicating more frequently occurrence of extreme hot weather during summer months. Water surplus during the period 1991-2010 was generally slightly increased in late autumn and early winter compared to the reference period, as the consequence of the precipitation increase. Analyses of soil water balance at all observed stations indicate that the lack of precipitation in the year 2003 combined with high temperatures caused higher evapotranspiration and increased water deficit during late spring and summer months which negatively affected crop yields. The main characteristic of the wet year of 2010 was increased water surplus in months with optimal water supply or usually suffering from water shortage. Faster atmosphere warming during the second half of the 20th century and up to now is documented by the faster increasing trend in mean annual temperature during 1991-2010 than in the period 1961-1991 at all locations. During the 50- year period 1961-2010, annual amounts of precipitation show decreasing trends in NW Croatia, mountainous plateau and over the coastal region, except in the eastern lowland. Water shortages during growing season already played a critical detrimental role in winter wheat and maize yields in Croatia. Provision of sufficient water and favorable precipitation distribution may have a positive effect upon the agricultural production in the conditions of raised temperatures. For a good and efficient adaptation of agriculture to climate changes, new technologies and technical measures like adequate tillage systems, seeding dates and choice of appropriate seed should be implemented.

climate, dry year, wet year, water shortage, crop production

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