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Educational Origins and Occupational Destinations? Dissecting the Education-Job Mismatch in School to Work Transitions in Croatia

This chapter explores the extent and persistance of horisontal mismatches in early career, and compares different vocational sectors in order to identify extent of support for "mechanicist" hypothesis of education-employment mismatch. This chapter uses data from a 2008 Survey on Educational and Employment Careers of Croatian Youth and a dataset covers all new young registrants to the Croatian Employment Service register between 2006 and 2010. While horizontal education-job mismatch among young people entering the Croatian labour market (in particular in some fields of upper secondary education) is rather widespread and persistent, the evidence provided in this chapter does not provide much support to mechanistic mismatch hypothesis which is explaining such outcomes by quantitative mismatch of courses being provided by education system and occupations in demand. True to mechanistic assumptions, in Public employment register data, inflow of graduates from some vocational sectors is short of recruitment into occupations associated with those sectors (forestry and wood processing, tourism and hospitality, construction) ; while in other, supply exceeds demand (in particular, electrotechnics and engineering). Yet, even in fields where occupational demand is similar to or greater than educational supply, much recruitment comes from graduates from mismatched fields of education: only in engineering, electotechnics and regulated health sector three quarters or more vacancies get filled in by vocationally matched candidates. As well, horizontal mismatch does not translate greatly with respect to variation in youth unemployment and job search dynamics: in general, youth educated for sectors in demand get their job slightly faster, but the advantage is far from overwhelming, very modest compared to differences between levels of education and way short of explaining long-standing difficulties of labour market integration among Croatian youth. As well, the recent economic slump did not bring much change: while construction sector had deteriorated, tourism had recovered quickly, and patterns in health sector were not related to economic but state recruitment policies, the crisis had affected job acquisition chances for youth from all walks of vocational education to similar extent, while incidence of horizontal mismatch had even increased slightly.

Education-job mismatch; school-to-work transition; Croatia

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