A prediction for the solar cycle 24 (CROSBI ID 669000)
Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | sažetak izlaganja sa skupa | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Brajša, Roman ; Verbanac, Giuliana ; Cliver, Ed ; Svalgard, Leif ; Hanslmeier, Arnold ; Woehl, Hubertus ; Roth, Martin
engleski
A prediction for the solar cycle 24
Applying and combining different methods, the strength and epochs for the next 24th solar cycle are predicted. The combined method consists of the three parts: (i) the calculation of the asymmetry of the ascending and descending solar cycle phases, (ii) the correlation of the relative sunspot numbers in and around solar activity minima with the following activity maxima, and (iii) the method of the auto regressive moving average model (ARMA) applied to the relative sunspot number data measured up to now. The used data sets include yearly, corrected yearly, monthly and smoothed monthly relative sunspot number values. With these combined procedures a lower amplitude of the next solar activity maximum, in comparison with the previous one, is estimated.
strength of the solar cycle, sunspot number, ARMA, correlation
nije evidentirano
nije evidentirano
nije evidentirano
nije evidentirano
nije evidentirano
nije evidentirano
Podaci o prilogu
7-7.
2009.
objavljeno
Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji
Book of Abstract - Heliophysical Phenomena and Earth's Enviroment.
Podaci o skupu
Heliophysical Phenomena and Earth's Enviroment
predavanje
07.09.2009-13.09.2009
Šibenik, Hrvatska