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A prediction for the solar cycle 24 (CROSBI ID 669000)

Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | sažetak izlaganja sa skupa | međunarodna recenzija

Brajša, Roman ; Verbanac, Giuliana ; Cliver, Ed ; Svalgard, Leif ; Hanslmeier, Arnold ; Woehl, Hubertus ; Roth, Martin A prediction for the solar cycle 24 // Book of Abstract - Heliophysical Phenomena and Earth's Enviroment.. 2009. str. 7-7

Podaci o odgovornosti

Brajša, Roman ; Verbanac, Giuliana ; Cliver, Ed ; Svalgard, Leif ; Hanslmeier, Arnold ; Woehl, Hubertus ; Roth, Martin

engleski

A prediction for the solar cycle 24

Applying and combining different methods, the strength and epochs for the next 24th solar cycle are predicted. The combined method consists of the three parts: (i) the calculation of the asymmetry of the ascending and descending solar cycle phases, (ii) the correlation of the relative sunspot numbers in and around solar activity minima with the following activity maxima, and (iii) the method of the auto regressive moving average model (ARMA) applied to the relative sunspot number data measured up to now. The used data sets include yearly, corrected yearly, monthly and smoothed monthly relative sunspot number values. With these combined procedures a lower amplitude of the next solar activity maximum, in comparison with the previous one, is estimated.

strength of the solar cycle, sunspot number, ARMA, correlation

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Podaci o prilogu

7-7.

2009.

objavljeno

Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji

Book of Abstract - Heliophysical Phenomena and Earth's Enviroment.

Podaci o skupu

Heliophysical Phenomena and Earth's Enviroment

predavanje

07.09.2009-13.09.2009

Šibenik, Hrvatska

Povezanost rada

Fizika, Geofizika