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Future heating and cooling needs at two Croatian lowland locations

Climate change impact on future heating and cooling needs are analysed for two locations in Croatian part of Pannonian plain. Zagr eb is one that is placed on its western edge while Osijek is on its eastern edge. Investigation of the differences between the future heating and cooling needs in the western and the eastern location are performed by t he implementation of the commonly used degree-days method. Two temperature p arameters were analysed for the whole particular season, that is, heating degre e-day (HDD) for the heating season (October–April) and cooling degree-day (CDD) for th e cooling season (May– September). To assess heating and cooling parameter s in future climate, a subset of nine regional climate models from the EU FP6 ENSEMB LES project was used. The assessment was done for two future periods: 2011–20 40 (P1) and 2041–2070 (P2) when all models follow A1B greenhouse gases emissio n scenario. Horizontal resolution of each model was 25 km. Future projections of heat ing and cooling parameters for Zagreb-Gri č and Osijek stations were determined by using simul ated 2-m air temperatures from the grid points which are closest to the stations. In order to evaluate the temperature simulations ag ainst observations, temperature biases (model minus observations) averaged over thr ee periods over the year (January–April, May–September and October–December) and all months for the 1961– 1990 control period were determined. For the same c ontrol period, nine present day simulations of heating and cooling degree-days were also calculated. Comparison of the degree-day simulations with temperature biases over the control period helped in detecting the simulations that are closest to the o bservations (i.e. the most realistic simulations). For P1 and P2 future climates, projec ted degree-day trends are shown as well as the range of degree-day changes that could be expected based on all considered simulations.

projected degree-day trends ; models from the EU FP6 ENSEMBLES ; A1B scenario ; periods 2011-2040 and 2041-2070

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